A season that began full of promise in East Lansing has morphed into one filled with turmoil as Michigan State limps into Ann Arbor for its annual matchup with hated rival Michigan.
Michigan State fans expected to challenge for the Big Ten East this season with a senior quarterback and experienced offensive line returning along with a very good defense. Heck, even I picked the Spartans as my surprise team in the Big Ten with a projected record of 10-2.
But injuries have taken their toll and quarterback Brian Lewerke hasn’t improved since a promising sophomore season in 2017. Star linebacker Joe Bachie was suspended for failing a drug test and head coach Mark Dantonio is firmly on the hot seat thanks in part to moves he didn’t make in the offseason. After a 7-5 finish in 2018, which featured one of the worst offenses in program history, Dantonio merely reshuffled his coaching staff’s positions rather than make necessary upgrades. The result is yet another terrible offense. Add in all of the off-the-field issues that have surrounded the program the past few years and the fact that Dantonio is just 24-24 overall and 15-18 in the Big Ten the past 4 seasons, and Saturday may just be the last shoe to drop.
At 4-5 overall and 2-4 in the Big Ten so far this season, a loss to Michigan would mean the Spartans would have to win their last 2 games just to get back to .500 and bowl eligible. Those 2 games are at Rutgers and home against Maryland, so perfectly doable, but could you imagine the meltdown if they lost 1 of those? They already blew a 25-point lead in a home loss to Illinois, so it’s certainly not out of question.
Michigan, meanwhile, seems to be peaking at the right time with solid performances starting in the 2nd half of the Penn State game and carrying through with wins over Notre Dame and Maryland. Barring an incredible turn of events, Michigan is out of the running for the conference title, but still has plenty to play for with their 2 main rivals in front of them and another 10-win season achievable.
Michigan coaches, players, and fans would love a lopsided win over their in-state rival to keep the Paul Bunyan trophy in Ann Arbor and continue the momentum into the final 2 weeks of the season. But is it a foregone conclusion?
Michigan State’s offense ranks 13th in the Big Ten and 118th nationally in rushing (130.9 yards per game), 7th in the Big Ten and 64th nationally in passing (235.0 yards per game), 10th in the Big Ten and 107th nationally in total offense (365.9 yards per game), and 12th in the Big Ten and 110th nationally in scoring (21.3 points per game).
The Spartans have topped 30 points just 4 times this season, including last week’s 37-34 loss to Illinois. Quarterback Brian Lewerke is completing just 55.7 percent of his passes for 223.6 yards per game, which ranks 4th in the Big Ten. However, he has just 12 touchdowns, and his 7 interceptions are 2nd-worst among Big Ten starting quarterbacks. He also doesn’t rank among the top 10 in the conference in passer efficiency.
MSU’s biggest problem is its running game, which has just 1 running back with more than 100 yards this season. That’s freshman Elijah Collins, who ranks 5th in the Big Ten with 79.4 yards per game. He has only found the end zone 5 times, however, and beyond him, the Spartans’ running game is reliant on Lewerke scrambling.
Michigan State isn’t very explosive, ranking 111th nationally in big plays, which means they’ll either have to put together sustained drives against Michigan’s highly-rated defense or get some lucky breaks in the turnover game.
Defensively, Michigan State ranks 4th in the Big Ten and 25th nationally against the run (108.1 yards per game), 9th in the Big Ten and 34th nationally against the pass (214.9 yards per game), 8th in the Big Ten and 20th nationally in total defense (323.0 yards per game), and 8th in the Big Ten and 34th nationally in scoring defense (23.6 points per game).
This is a good defense, but not as strong as what is typically found in East Lansing in recent years. It’s still a top 20 defense nationally, but in the last 5 games, the Spartans are allowing nearly 34 points per game. Indiana, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Illinois each topped 30, while Penn State scored 28.
Where MSU is especially susceptible is in the passing game. Illinois threw for 369 yards last Saturday and the Spartans have given up 7 passing touchdowns in the past 2 weeks. That said, the same was true of Maryland’s defense 2 weeks ago and Michigan didn’t particularly take advantage of it. We all know the stat that the team that rushes for more yards has won 44 of the last 49 matchups in this game, and Jim Harbaugh and Josh Gattis will try to impose their will in the running game as always.
Michigan is the more talented team, the healthier team, and the team that is playing much better football entering Saturday. The only way Michigan loses this game is if the turnovers that plagued the offense in the early season come back in full force. Look for a balanced game offensively, looking to control the ball on the ground and take a few shots through the air in a boring but convincing Michigan win.
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